Climate Basics Podcast Episode 6 notes

 Ep 6 - Research notes: Japan and the Challenge to Reach Net Zero

Topics covered:

Japan – energy insecurity – imports most of their energy, so they are super-motivated to switch to RE but they have a shrinking, aging population, which poses domestic political problems.  apparently off-shore wind is a challenge due to shoreline dropoffs/terrain. Wave/Tidal/Oceanic thermal energy conversion potential


Scaled back nukes after fukushima, like germany


Has a high gdp and high energy use, opportunities for many forms of renewables


Also seeing demographic problems mirrored in many developed nations


Also, like germany, seeing less growth than normal, even contraction


These places are prime opportunities for degrowth


They have fully developed industrial cores, good universities and ample local food production - if only there was a way to help fight urbanization


Credits and subsidies for rural living could reinvigorate families and local economies - less overall gdp but more independent and stable  


Though GDP might lower, costs of living will decrease and domestic supply chains will stabilize


The provides resilience to larger economic turbulence 


So degrowth isn’t some terrible destructive process - it’s just building smart


One problem with going green is that use expands to match availability, like adding traffic lanes - that makes it hard to reach 0% - if you build solar, industry just buys both solar and petrol, not one over the other


Degrowth is a way to actually hit climate goals without decreasing quality of life, stabilizing and localizing economies in ways that many are calling for. Want fewer tourists? Get some rural reform - it’s cheaper than other sectors and ensures food supply.

Notably, japan already reached peak energy use (around 6,000 twh) and then pulled back, while still growing their economy. We are twenty years into post-peak japan.

From this, we can see that raw energy use and gdp are not as intrinsically related to each other in fully developed economies - that’s a good thing for the world!  


Unfortunately, renewables only account for 10-20 percent of Japan’s energy, with fossil fuel imports providing the grand majority.

The big opportunity for japan is wave and tidal energy. As they come onto the market, Japan could choose to become a leader in hydro-based energy production, giving them the potential for another boom like they had with cars, electronics, videogames and computers in the past. Japanese universities, private, NGO, & government sponsored projects are being developed, including taking advantage of its deep waters by looking into tidal and wind combined facilities, as well as ocean thermal energy conversion. They already host one of the only OTEC plants in the world. The trick is how to build offshore facilities that are resilient enough to withstand the occasional tsunami.  OTEC also provides multiple services - the upwelled, warmed, nutritious water from the lower ocean can be used for aquaculture and mineral harvesting. Japan has had this going for over ten years, and is soon expanding their tech to the island of Palau.

These are very promising technologies, and japan might, because of its unique geology, be in a position to again be at the front of an important tech boom. They have the reliable tides, deep waters and the need to develop the potential for energy autonomy/sovereignty, a legacy of expert engineering for optimal efficiency, and that combined with some reduction in per capita energy use, even Japan could absolutely reach net zero. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K6U1BpaaOo
https://www.modec.com/business/fow/
https://www.gov-online.go.jp/eng/publicity/book/hlj/html/202306/202306_10_en.html
https://www.palau.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/11_000001_01741.html
https://www.mol.co.jp/en/pr/2023/23038.html
http://otecokinawa.com/en/Project/History.html 

https://www.oecc.or.jp/en/project/climate_change/innovative_technology/otec/
https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/projects/energymix.php
https://asiatimes.com/2025/08/green-vows-gas-realities-japans-clean-energy-dilemma/
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Insight-163-Japans-Energy-Transition.pdf 


Edo/Tokogawa periods - the high feudal times of samurai and regional daimo

Meiji period - centralization of power, rapid industrialization, and nationalistic rejection of foreign influence 


Up until the end of WW2:

  • Korea occupation

  • Taiwan

  • China - Shanghai, Nanjing, Manchuria

  • Bits of Russian land

  • Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia


Empire-building / colonization, superior race mentality, insufficient resources on their Island (isolation) was a part of their motivation



WW2 to about 1980:

  • Heavy emphasis on industrialization and manufacturing (steel, shipbuilding, chemicals, later automobiles and consumer electronics). EH.net

  • Export-oriented growth combined with a large domestic market



1980 - 90

  • The manufacturing sector expanded into high-technology goods (semiconductors, electronics), automobiles and precision machinery. 

  • The shift from heavy industry to more knowledge-intensive manufacturing



1990s to Date: Slowdown, “Lost Decades” and Structural Headwinds

However, from the early 1990s Japan entered a long period of economic stagnation, often characterised by the term the “Lost Decade(s)”. The bubble in asset prices (real estate and equities) burst in 1990, triggering banking problems, weak investment and deflationary pressures. Investopedia+2NBER+2

Key causes include:

  • Collapse of speculative asset bubble, high levels of non-performing loans. For example, the NBER working paper identifies rigidities (including downward wage rigidity) and productivity slowdowns. NBER

  • Structural change: as industry matured, potential for high growth based purely on factor accumulation (capital and labour) diminished; Japan faced diminishing returns. The Harvard/other working paper states that structural causes included insufficient effective demand, labour-utilisation issues, and sectoral reallocations. Harvard Scholar

  • Demographic and labour-force constraints (see below in more detail) beginning to bite.

  • Deflation and weak inflation expectations: persistently low inflation and interest rates hampered corporate incentives. The “Lost Decade” article notes that from 2011-19 growth averaged under 1 %. Investopedia

  • Global competition: South Korea, Taiwan, China, and other Asian economies caught up in manufacturing, eroding Japan’s lead in electronics and other sectors. (See broader economic-historical accounts.) Brookings

  • High public debt, weak domestic demand, and uncertain corporate investment. The Cambridge/IDE essay summarises that while Japan’s growth from 1945-73 was extremely rapid, after that the world’s markets became less absorbent and export margins shrank



  1. Low birth rate

  2. Aging population and LONG life expectancy (world leader)

    1. The aging ratio is steep: the old-age dependency ratio (people 65+ relative to working-age) is projected to reach about 79 % by 2050 (currently is 50%) - Working Better with Age: Japan | OECD

  3. Relies upon FF imports for 83% of their energy needs - Japan - Countries & Regions - IEA



VIEWPOINT - very exciting because Japan has no choice but to make a change for national energy security reasons, as well as general wealth of their peoples





Shrinkanomics: Policy Lessons from Japan on Aging – IMF F&D

  • Degrowth

  • Shrinking cities

  • smart shrink

  • compact city

  • depopulation




Is Population Decline a Constraint on Economic Vitality? | Research | The Tokyo Foundation

As of April 2019, Japan’s population stood at about 120 million. By 2115, it will plunge to about 50 million, according to the medium-variant population projections published by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) in 2017. In other words, over the next century, the Japanese population will shrink by almost 60%, losing the 70 million that it has gained in the century since 1919.


Addressing demographic headwinds in Japan: A long-term perspective (EN)




Tech expected to win in this Japanese Energy Transition:


IEEFA Report - Key Barriers in Japan's Renewable Energy Development_August 2025.pdf



Energy Consumption by Country 2025




Population by Country (2025) - Worldometer






https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/

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