Climate Basics Podcast Episode 19 notes

Hormuz, Malacca, Suez and Panama Canals - why are these established trade routes seemingly destabilizing all at once after functioning for decades or centuries, how do they impact global trade, and what could life look like without them Intro: Tradie is important, of course. And throughout history , much of that trade has been on the water. Today, 80% of world trade volume is carried by sea. That includes most of our foods, fuels, goods - everything. Hormuz What it does: Connects the persian gulf (One of the Seven Seas of antiquity!) and the middle east (Which has been a center for economic and scientific advancement many times through history, from Sumeria to Babylon to the Bhagdad house of wisdom) to indian and african ocean trade areas. It’s been a transit hub as long as civilization has existed. What is moved through it: petrol, which includes nitrogen fertilizer used globally as a crutch for short-term agriculture yields. Who is doing the moving: ~90% of the crude oil going through it is used in asia, china is half What’s the problem: WAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrr What we could do instead: do an honest transition to renewable fuels, grid storage, and regenerative agriculture, freeing the economy from that liability Panama: What it does: takes 8,000 miles off and makes safer the transit between the atlantic and pacific ocean trade area What is moved through it: 14,000+ ships, 6% of global maritime trade, 16% of U.S. trade. Over 100 million long tons of petrol yearly, 60 million t of trade goods, 40 million t of grain Who is doing the moving: The U.S. is the origin or destination of 74% of panama shipping What’s the problem: Uses huge amounts of water that are depleting rapidly. What we could do instead: Consume and grow more food within each bioregion, reduce petrol use, and upgrade continental rail shipping to reduce maritime traffic and save $. Suez: What it does: connects indian ocean trade area with mediterranean through the red sea, shortening path by ~4000 miles What is moved through it: 10-15% of global trade, over 1 trillion annually. 30% of shipping container traffic. 10 million barrels of oil per day, somewhere around 10% of petrol shipped Who is doing the moving: Main route between Europe and Asia, though less and less What’s the problem: use has declined, due to periodic disruptions and regional volatility What we could do instead: Going around all of africa isn’t really a long-term option - it wastes surprising amounts of fuel, as well as increases the time money and risks involved. Better to work with Egypt to stabilize the region and build infrastructure for land-based shipping alternatives. Malacca: What it does: provides shortest path between indian and asian trade areas What is moved through it: ~100,000 ships moving $3.5 trillion annually, ¼-⅓ of global trade, ⅔ of Chinese trade and 60% of their oil supply(80% of their imports), and 40% of Indian trade goods Who is doing the moving: Everyone, but especially china and india What’s the problem: narrow, shallow, difficult to navigate, and a huge security concern What we could do instead: consume less petrol, regionalize coffee and palm oil production, possibly build pipelines and alternate terrestrial shipping routes through Thailand and Malaysia. Also, a reduction in forest fires in sumatra and malaysia would help reduce smog-based visibility issues, as well as environmental concerns. When adding the ecological services of the rainforests, coral reefs and shallow marine biomes, more than half the world’s GDP is found in this area. Podcast notes https://www.moneytalksnews.com/slideshows/types-of-goods-that-ship-through-the-panama-canal/ https://theinterviewtimes.com/strait-of-malacca-global-trade/#google_vignette https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ https://www.evalueserve.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Panama-Canal-An-Emerging-Challenge-for-Global-Logistics-Market.pdf https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2023/2023-11/the-strait-of-malaccas-global-supply-chain-implications/ https://unctad.org/news/suez-and-panama-canal-disruptions-threaten-global-trade-and-development https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024 https://ship4wd.com/logistics-shipping/strait-of-malacca What else goes through the panama canal: Animal and vegetable oils and fats: Southbound (286,000 long tons) and northbound (2,264,000 long tons) Canned and refrigerated foods: Southbound (135,000) and northbound (1,306,000) Chemicals and petroleum chemicals: Southbound (12,364,000) and northbound (4,123,000) Coal and coke (the latter of which is a coal byproduct used to make steel): Southbound (11,427,000) and northbound (3,651,000) Lumber and related products: Southbound (1,055,000) and northbound (1,601,000) Machinery and equipment: Southbound (1,812,000) and northbound (3,958,000) Manufactures of iron and steel: Southbound (1,346,000) and northbound (6,053,000) Miscellaneous minerals: Southbound (114,000) and northbound (6,838,000) Miscellaneous hazardous cargo: Southbound (2,562,000) and northbound (580,000) Nitrates, phosphates and potash (which are primarily fertilizers and fertilizer components): Southbound (4,882,000) and northbound (3,930,000) Ores and metals: Southbound (2,793,000) and northbound (9,020,000) Other agricultural commodities: Southbound (415,000) and northbound (939,000