Climate Basics Podcast Episode 7 notes

 Episode 7 - India

Draft Agenda

HOW DID INDIA GET TO 90% FOSSIL FUEL USE?

      Short Answer

• massive population

• electrifying their population has taken time, with electricity deficiencies as recently as the early 2000s

• all 600k villages just electrified in 2018

• massive coal reserves so reliance has been on coal

• the history is rich, there's a story to tell as to how the 2nd most (now 1st) populous nation got to this stage

DOES INDIA WANT TO TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL?
They produce 1 billion metric tonnes each year, 100 billion tonnes in reserve

DOES INDIA WISH TO ADOPT RENEWABLES AT SCALE?

• we can reference the govt initiatives

• opening up of electricity market (2001?)

• re-training for coal miners

• solar industry supports

• India's NDCs and other legislation

• there has been a very big uptake of solar

• can reference the harsh air pollution > has this led to high-profile political leader statements re must move from coal, etc?

WHAT ARE BRIGHT SPOTS / POSSIBLE PATHS FOR INDIA TO GREATLY REDUCE COAL AND SWITCH TO RENEWABLES?

• 2 & 3 wheelers?

• Solar is growing with government plans to expand

• wind - incl offshore 

• batteries

• Hydropower - specifically pumped hydro storage 

• nuclear

• specialty - OTEC, tidal wave?

Research Notes Start

• India is the world’s most populous nation, and among the biggest economies for all of world history. 

• India has several advantages including highly productive industry and agriculture, regular monsoons, and a high number of young workers, many with good technical training and english - the global language of trade.

• However, India also has terrible air pollution - the worst in the world, and it’s getting worse as the nation continues to burn coal, buy oil and gas, and encourage slash-and-burn agriculture. 

• Kids in Delhi can expect about 10 years shorter lifespan from air exposure

• Major north indian cities are facing debilitating regular air pollution. Reports vary but among the top contributors are industry, fossil fuel and biomass power plants, small vehicles including diesel and other fuels, and agriculture. Each of these problems have solutions

• Green power especially for industry

• Electric vehicles, like the e-3-wheelers currently selling in South Africa

• Sustainable farming and how it saves money

• India also faces severe heat waves and droughts from climate change

• There are built environment and nature-based solutions for these problems as well.

• Aquifer management, bioswales, and urban canopy.
  
  

As far as it’s known, particulates come from 3 sources: Industry, Traffic, and Homes
Emissions of primary particles (black carbon, dust, metals, and primary organics) contribute 38% of PM2.5 concentrations in India, so industry and ag.
Cooking and heating with solid biomass contribute one-third of the PM2.5. Fossil fuel sources contribute 30%, largely as secondary aerosols.
In major IGP cities like Delhi, the regional transport of particulates and gaseous pollutants emitted from various sources upwind play a major role in the PM2.5.
There are also many diesel generators powering homes, pumps, etc.
Providing access to clean energy to the biomass dependent 500 million people and switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources would eliminate more than 60% of the PM2.5 over India, including the heavily polluted IGP.
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.1c00170 

The rest could be fixed with EVs.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212095518302402

India loses somewhere between 8-40 billion dollars a year due to decreased productivity from pollution-caused death, somewhere around 2 million people /yr
That’s like losing the population of toronto (or greater cleveland) EVERY YEAR due to pm 2.5 particulate matter
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30298-9/fulltext?ref=insights.onegiantleap.com

Vehicle pollution accounts for a significant portion
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11270-023-06232-9 

Clean cooking fuels are also key - around ¼ of india still cooks with wood or coal.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00744-0 

Resources

• India - Countries & Regions - IEA

• India: Energy Country Profile - Our World in Data

• BP Statistical Review of World Energy

• India – coal – difficult Energy Transition because of labour concerns, as well as national energy security (ie domestic supply).  coal is situated in a few provinces (out of 38, total) so federally, there are major political issues surrounding any attempt to wean off coal.

Population of India (2025 and historical)

Year	Population	Yearly % Change	Migrants (net)	Median Age	Fertility Rate	Density (P/Km²)	Urban Pop %	Country's Share of World Pop	World Population
2025	1,463,865,525	0.89%	−495,753	28.8	1.94	492	37.1%	17.78%	8,231,613,070
2024	1,450,935,791	0.89%	−630,830	28.4	1.96	488	36.6%	17.78%	8,161,972,572
2023	1,438,069,596	0.89%	−979,179	28.1	1.98	484	36%	17.77%	8,091,734,930
2022	1,425,423,212	0.81%	−1,353,478	27.7	1.99	479	35.5%	17.77%	8,021,407,192
2020	1,402,617,695	1.1%	−73,806	27	2.05	472	34.4%	17.78%	7,887,001,292
2015	1,328,024,498	1.32%	−655,085	25.3	2.29	447	32.3%	17.78%	7,470,491,872
2010	1,243,481,564	1.49%	−50,905	23.6	2.6	418	30.6%	17.71%	7,021,732,148
1995	960,301,044	2.11%	−57,297	20.3	3.65	323	26.6%	16.68%	5,758,878,982
1990	864,972,221	2.28%	125,514	19.7	4.04	291	25.7%	16.24%	5,327,803,110
1975	611,309,535	2.29%	434,205	18.4	5.2	206	21.7%	15.02%	4,070,735,277
1955	387,700,887	2.29%	70,393	19.7	5.91	130	18.6%	14.15%	2,740,213,792

India: Energy Country Profile - Our World in Data - the numbers are jarring (to me)

A Study of the Indian Power Sector: 1947-2022 by Kanishk Mishra :: SSRN

	Energy generation capability	Villages electrified
1947	1.3GW	0
1973	16GW	156,000
2002	100 GW	512,000
2012	200 GW	556,000
2018	300 GW	600,000 - total electrification
2022	400 GW	600,000 - total electrification

Country / region	Typical recent T&D losses (% of output)	Source & brief note
India	~14% (2023);  historical peak ~34% (2001–02)	World Bank / IEA series for the recent value; Mishra (SSRN) documents the ~34% peak and the theft/technical causes. India’s value fell from early-2000s highs to mid-teens due to reforms. (World Bank Data)
China	~4–6% (recent years)	World Bank / IEA series show China’s T&D losses in the single-digit range (often ~5%); China has invested heavily in transmission (UHV) and grid modernization. Reuters reporting also discusses curtailment and regional constraints but not unusually high systemic T&D loss rates (instead curtailment is a different issue). (Reuters)
United States	~5% (2018–2022 average ~4–6%)	EIA explicitly reports U.S. T&D losses averaging about 5% in the 2018–2022 window (standard OECD range). World Bank series gives similar numbers. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Germany (EU example)	~4–5% (2022–2023)	Germany’s reported T&D losses are typically in the ≈4–5% range (CEIC / World Bank numbers). The CEER 2023 EU report shows distribution losses vary across EU members but transmission losses are low (≈1–4%) and distribution losses vary more. (CEIC Data)
Australia	~5–7% (typical national range; varies by state)	National regulator and AEMO/AER reporting show system loss factors and distribution losses by jurisdiction; overall T&D losses are modest (single-digit, often mid-single digits). See AEMO/AER benchmarking reports for state breakdowns. (AEMO)
Canada	~3–4% (transmission ~3% in some provinces; distribution varies)	Provincial data (AESO = Alberta) report transmission loss factors ~3.1% (2022). Country aggregates in Canada are typically below 10% and often in mid single-digits. National statistics (StatCan, CESAR analysis) note T&D losses under 10% and provincial variance. (AESO)
Thailand (SE-Asia example)	~5–8% (recent typical levels)	Thailand’s historical series shows losses often in the single digits (e.g., ~6% around 2014 in CEIC). Many SE Asian countries report single-digit to low-teens depending on the network and theft levels. (CEIC Data)

A Study of the Indian Power Sector: 1947-2022 by Kanishk Mishra :: SSRN

Geopolitical Influences 

I. Aggressive Neighbours 

Large-scale conflicts with Pakistan in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999, Doklam and Galwan clashes with China have forced India to allocate a major portion of its annual budget towards defence expenditure, to maintain its military assets in case of a two-front war. This spending diverts spending which can be allocated to infrastructure development in the long term. Border tensions have forced India to prioritize energy infrastructure in strategic areas like Ladakh, where there is a higher cost of establishment and limited economic viability, purely for a strategic presence. While economically unviable, some of these projects are necessary for protecting the territorial integrity of the country. As a result, there is no cross-border energy trading with Pakistan compared to Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. 

II. 1970 Oil Crisis 

The global oil crises of 1973 and 1979 led to the inclination towards hydro power and domestic coal. India was heavily reliant on oil imports and faced a balance of payments crisis, rising inflation and limited fiscal capacity. The events forced India to prioritize energy security over affordability, and led to a policy shift towards thermal plants and hydropower with the creation of state-owned NTPC and NHPC. Domestic coal became the backbone of the energy sector. 

III. Nuclear Sanctions 

The development of nuclear energy in India was hampered by the nuclear sanctions imposed by the US in 1974 and 1998. Nuclear energy is a reliable and clean energy source which is much more efficient than any other source of energy, with very limited drawbacks. The US sanctions led to the Indian energy sector being devoid of any developments in nuclear energy, where it could have helped the sector to grow by leaps and bounds. This would, in turn, have helped the country’s economic growth, but it remained a distant dream. The 2008 Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement lifted these sanctions and allowed India to diversify its energy sources through collaborations and imports in the nuclear energy field. 

IV. Russia-Ukraine War 

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the energy market of the world. The supply chain disruptions led to a sharp increase in coal prices, which made imports uneconomical and difficult to procure. India was also facing diplomatic pressure from Western countries to curb the Russian oil and coal imports. India maintained its stance and continued to purchase from Russia, to secure its interests – a mark of its diplomatic success. 

Greg’s Notes

HOW DID INDIA GET TO 90% FOSSIL FUEL USE?

      Short Answer

• massive population

• electrifying their population has taken time, with electricity deficiencies as recently as the early 2000s

• all 600k villages just electrified in 2018

• massive coal reserves so reliance has been on coal

• the history is rich, there's a story to tell as to how the 2nd most (now 1st) populous nation got to this stage

India up to 1947

• End of WW2

• End of British rule - an extractive relationship

• Partition into Pakistan and India

• India left after colonization:

• With Pakistan conflict?

• with low GDP

• With low energy production - about 1.3GW energy generation capability

• Not a great legacy by the British

India’s Energy Generation Capability - A Study of the Indian Power Sector: 1947-2022 by Kanishk Mishra :: SSRN

	Energy generation capability	Villages electrified
1947	1.3GW	0
1973	16GW	156,000
2002	100 GW	512,000
2012	200 GW	556,000
2018	300 GW	600,000 - total electrification
2022	400 GW	600,000 - total electrification

Electrified village ≠ electrified household or reliable power: multiple independent analyses (The Wire, Reuters, Forbes) noted that “village electrification” is partly a legal/administrative milestone (connection to grid) and does not necessarily mean every household had service or stable 24×7 power; critics say the claim is political and needs to be read alongside reliability and consumption data. This nuance is often raised by civil-society commentators. The Wire+1

Air pollution in India - statistics & facts | Statista

India Air Quality Index (AQI) and Air Pollution information | IQAir

India Air Quality Index (AQI) : Real-Time Air Pollution

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/particulates/surface/level/overlay=pm2.5/orthographic=-288.22,19.05,446 

DOES INDIA WANT TO TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL?

DOES INDIA WISH TO ADOPT RENEWABLES AT SCALE?

• we can reference the govt initiatives

• opening up of electricity market (2001?)

• re-training for coal miners

• solar industry supports

• India's NDCs and other legislation

• there has been a very big uptake of solar

• can reference the harsh air pollution > has this led to high-profile political leader statements re must move from coal, etc?

WHAT ARE BRIGHT SPOTS / POSSIBLE PATHS FOR INDIA TO GREATLY REDUCE COAL AND SWITCH TO RENEWABLES?

• 2 & 3 wheelers?

• solar

• wind - incl offshore

• batteries

• hydropower

• nuclear

specialty - OTEC, tidal wave?

Areas Greg will be looking at:

• Coal

• It’s something like 7 provinces (of 33) have a large coal industry, so change is difficult

• Govt initiatives / legislation / grants etc for:

• Solar

• Wind

• Hydro

• batteries

• 2 & 3 wheeler uptake, whether there is a possibility to leap from these to EVs (eventually)